It’s the first day of fall in the U.S. and already the forecast is turning gloomy on whether the current batch of Android tablets can overcome Apple’s lead. Amazon, perhaps with the best chance to rival the iPad, may have already stumbled by putting up a 7-inch device against Apple’s larger alternative, industry experts warned Friday.

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The main problem with Android tablets taking on Apple is the software, research giant Gartner announced Thursday. Android tablet sales were cut by 28 percent over the previous quarter to 17.3 percent of the market versus 73.4 percent for the iPad.